Freight from China to Thailand: why the price keeps moving, and how to plan for it

A China–Thailand quote has a short shelf life

Most importers on this lane, and almost all smaller ones, buy at spot rates: the price of space on a particular sailing at the time it is booked. Carriers revise those prices often, and the surcharges on top move on their own schedule. So a sea freight quote out of China is valid for a limited time, often a couple of weeks or to the end of the month, and the validity date is the most important line on it.

A quote that was competitive three weeks ago tells you very little about what the same container costs today. That is worth remembering before comparing an old quote with a new one and concluding that someone has raised their margin.

What actually moves the price

Five things account for most of the movement. None of them is new. What is unusual about 2026 is how many have hit at the same time.

The Chinese calendar

Factories in China slow down or close for the Spring Festival and for the National Day holiday at the start of October, known as Golden Week. Shippers rush to get cargo out before each one, which pushes up demand and prices in the weeks beforehand. Volumes then drop while factories are shut, and carriers cancel sailings to match. The next big one is Chinese New Year on 6 February 2027. Expect space to tighten through January, and production to take a while to get back to normal afterwards as workers return from their home provinces.

Weather

Typhoon season in the western Pacific runs mostly from July to October. When a storm approaches, Chinese ports suspend operations, sometimes for two or three days. Ships due to load wait at anchor, the next ships arrive on top of them, and the queue can take weeks to clear. A schedule that slips in Shanghai turns up late in Laem Chabang as well.

Ships that don't sail

Carriers manage price partly by managing supply. A blank sailing is a scheduled voyage cancelled outright. A port omission is a vessel skipping one of its usual calls, often to win back time lost to congestion. Both take space off the market at short notice, and the cargo booked on them has to go somewhere, usually onto the next sailing, which then fills up faster.

Fuel

Fuel is one of a carrier's biggest costs, and most of it is passed on as a separate surcharge rather than built into the base rate. When oil prices jump, carriers can introduce or raise a fuel surcharge within weeks, and unless your quote fixed the amount, it applies to your cargo too.

Empty containers and full yards

A container has to be empty and in the right place before it can be loaded. When Chinese terminals are congested, their yards fill up, some restrict how many export boxes they will accept, and empties get stuck where they aren't needed. A supplier can have the goods packed and still wait days for a box.

What is happening on the lane right now

In short: rates from China to South-East Asia are at record levels, and the reasons are congestion, fuel and strong demand, all at once.

• Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index, which tracks 18 routes including Shanghai–Laem Chabang, rose 2% to US$1,518 per 40ft container in its 1 October 2026 update. The index hit an all-time high for the sixth week running and was up 212% on a year earlier.
• A run of typhoons through August and September, including Typhoon Saudel at the end of August, shut terminals at Ningbo and Shanghai for days at a time. Ningbo lost 78 hours to closures in the week to 3 September, and by 4 September ships at Shanghai were waiting an average of about five and a half days for a berth.
• Brent crude has been above US$100 a barrel since early September, after a new wave of attacks on shipping in the Gulf. CMA CGM, one of the largest carriers, set an emergency fuel surcharge of US$75 per TEU on its intra-regional lanes from 1 October.
• Carriers cancelled sailings around Golden Week, and according to forwarder Dimerco's October report they did so at much shorter notice than usual, which raises the risk of cargo being rolled into late October.
• Underneath all of this, demand is strong. Trade between China and ASEAN reached 4.34 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026, 18.2% more than a year earlier.

Drewry expects intra-Asia rates to stabilise over the coming weeks, as the post-holiday dip in volumes gives ports a chance to work through their backlogs. That is a reasonable expectation, not a promise. Fuel in particular depends on events that nobody in freight can forecast.

Which price you actually pay

This is where most invoice surprises come from. A quote gives you a rate for a period, but what you are charged depends on when the cargo actually loads. Carriers generally apply rates and surcharges by the vessel's loading or sailing date, not by the date you asked for the quote or made the booking. CMA CGM's fuel surcharge notices, for example, state that they apply based on the loading date.

So if your supplier is a week late, or your container is rolled to the next ship, the shipment can slide into a new rate period and pick up whatever changed in between. Nobody has done anything wrong, and the invoice still won't match the quote.

Rolled cargo, and how to make it less likely

A container is rolled when it was booked on a vessel but gets left behind and carried on a later one. It happens when a ship is overbooked, when it arrives late and leaves early to protect its schedule, or when the carrier gives priority to cargo paying a higher rate. In a tight market it is common. In early September, terminals at Ningbo asked shipping lines to keep the share of local export containers being rolled below 10%. That a port felt it needed a limit says a lot about how often it was happening.

You can't prevent it entirely, but you can make your container a less likely candidate:

• Book as soon as the cargo-ready date is firm, not when the goods are packed
• Give a ready date your supplier will actually meet. A container that misses the terminal cut-off is the easiest one to leave behind
• Make sure the export documents and the verified gross mass (VGM) go in before their deadlines
• Agree a fallback sailing with your forwarder at the time of booking, so a roll costs days rather than a whole week

Planning around a moving market

None of this can be switched off. Importers who plan for it, though, end up paying less for it. These are the things that make the most difference.

1. Order earlier than the lead time says

   Add a margin for the sailing itself on top of the supplier's production lead time, especially between July and October and in the weeks before Chinese New Year. A few extra days of stock costs less than an urgent air shipment.

2. Look at where the goods load

   China has several major export gateways. If your supplier is in Guangdong, loading at Nansha or Shekou may make more sense than trucking to Shanghai, and both are closer to Thailand. When one port is congested, ask whether another can serve the same factory.

3. Choose FCL or LCL on more than price

   LCL is cheaper for small volumes, but it depends on the consolidator filling a container, and a shared box can wait for other people's cargo. In a tight market a full container you control is often the more predictable choice, even if you end up paying for some empty space.

4. Consider a fixed rate for regular volume

   If you ship most weeks, a rate agreed for three or six months gives you a known cost. You will pay more than spot when the market falls and less when it rises, and in return you can budget. If you ship a few times a year, spot is usually the better fit, and timing matters more.

5. Keep the overland route in mind

   Since the China–Laos Railway opened in December 2021, some cargo from southern China has reached Thailand overland through Laos, crossing into Thailand at Nong Khai. It doesn't suit every shipment, but for some goods it is a real alternative when the sea lane is congested.

Before your next shipment from China

• Cargo-ready date confirmed with the supplier, with a margin built in
• Quote checked for its last valid loading date, not just the date it was issued
• Fuel and peak season surcharges: fixed in the quote, or charged at loading
• Port of loading agreed, with a second option named in case it is congested
• Booking made as soon as the ready date is firm
• A fallback sailing agreed with your forwarder
• Export document and VGM deadlines known to the supplier
• Chinese New Year (6 February 2027) and other closures on the purchasing calendar
• Enough stock at your end to absorb one missed sailing
• Incoterms rule checked: under FOB or FCA the freight and its surcharges are yours; under CFR or CIF the seller buys the freight, but a delay still lands on you

In summary

Freight from China to Thailand moves because the lane is short, busy and sensitive to anything that happens at Chinese ports, from holidays and typhoons to the price of oil. At the moment most of those are pushing the same way.

You can't fix the market. You can control when you book, where the goods load, what your quote actually fixes and how much stock you keep in hand. Get those right and the swings become something you have budgeted for, not something you find out about on the invoice.

If you have a shipment coming from China and want a current quote, or want to check its timing against the latest schedules, our team can help.